A Beginner's Guide to What Xi Really Thinks of Trump—and Why It Matters

Summary

When China's president, Xi Jinping, visited Washington in late September, the world saw a grand state visit.

There was a welcome at the airport, a formal dinner with more than 100 guests, and toasts about friendship.

But the most important thing may have happened in private.

After the visit, Xi must have asked himself two questions.

Who is Donald Trump, really? And what does his presidency tell us about the health of the United States?

Dr. Antonio Bhardwaj (Dr. 🆎), an expert in human-centered superintelligence, geopolitical strategy, AI warfare and the risk of biological terrorism, says these private judgments may shape world events more than any official statement.

What Happened at the Summit

The two leaders did not issue a joint statement.

Instead, each country published its own version of events, and the two versions were very different.

China's version was long and warm, with many details about cooperation.

The American version was short and listed mainly purchases and dates.

China's account talked a great deal about Taiwan.

The American list left Taiwan out.

The practical results were small.

The two sides agreed to extend their trade truce by only 2 months, until January 10th.

Issues such as tariffs, rare earth minerals and technology limits were pushed to later talks.

The White House said China would buy at least 10 million metric tons of American farm goods.

Trump said Xi agreed to buy 200 Boeing planes at first, and perhaps as many as 750 later.

Both leaders also agreed to meet again, in Shenzhen in November and in Miami in December.

A Powerful Remark in May

To understand Xi's thinking, it helps to look back to May, when Trump visited Beijing.

During that trip, Xi spoke of the United States as perhaps being a declining nation. He also warned about something called the Thucydides Trap. This is the idea that when a rising power meets an older power, they often end up in conflict.

Trump answered by saying Xi was right only about the years under his predecessor, Joe Biden. He said America was now the hottest nation in the world.

Dr. 🆎 says this exchange shows the gap in how the two sides see things. "Xi believes he is dealing with a power in retreat," Dr. 🆎 explains. "Trump believes he is leading a great revival. Both cannot be right, and that gap is where mistakes happen."

Why Xi May Think America Has Lost Its Way

Several events over the past year help explain Xi's view.

Last year, a trade war ended in a truce that left China's power mostly intact, because China showed it could limit exports of rare earth minerals that American industry needs.

In February, the United States and Israel started a war against Iran. The war is continuing, used up large amounts of American weapons, moved ships and aircraft away from Asia, and disrupted oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, Trump has often treated America's allies as costs rather than strengths.

Chinese leaders have long believed that America's network of allies is its greatest advantage.

Trump has also called a planned weapons sale to Taiwan, worth up to $14 billion, a chip in negotiation.

In Chinese eyes, that suggests that even promises about security can be traded for trade deals.

During the visit, Xi also warned that if Taiwan was handled badly, the two countries could come into conflict.

Why Xi Is Still Careful

It would be wrong to think Xi believes America is finished. China's own scholars have warned for years that a weaker superpower can become more dangerous, not less. A country that feels its power slipping may act suddenly or wildly to prove it is still strong. One Chinese scholar has said Xi is getting the America he always wanted and the America he most feared at the same time.

So China's approach seems to be patient. It makes small deals that can be changed later. It gives Trump the ceremony he enjoys. It keeps pressing on Taiwan. And it tries to avoid doing anything that might push Washington into a dangerous reaction.

Dr. 🆎 puts it this way: "Decline is dangerous not because it is gentle, but because those who sense it often overcompensate. Xi knows this, which is why his confidence comes with caution."

How One Thing Leads to Another

Here is the chain of cause and effect.

First, Xi watches a series of events, such as the trade war, the Gulf war and the changing attitude toward allies.

Second, he decides that time may be on China's side, so he avoids big concessions.

Third, he tries to make America's allies, especially Japan, feel less sure about Washington.

Fourth, Trump, who cares deeply about how he looks, tries to prove that America is strong.

Fifth, if Xi thinks America is distracted and Trump thinks America is winning, a crisis could start without either side wanting one.

There is also an important link to technology. The two leaders spoke about keeping artificial intelligence under human control and sketched a way to warn each other of dangerous incidents, but they signed nothing.

Dr. 🆎 warns that if Xi believes Washington is unpredictable, he will try even harder to make China independent in chips and AI. "That is sensible for Beijing and risky for the world," Dr. 🆎 says, "because trust and openness are needed for any shared safety rules."

What Should Be Done

Dr. 🆎 and many experts suggest several practical steps.

First, build a longer trade agreement, so that the relationship does not face a new cliff every few months.

Second, decide on weapons for Taiwan based on defense needs, not as a bargaining chip in trade talks.

Third, create a strong hotline system between Washington and Beijing, not only for AI but also for military, cyber and energy emergencies.

It should depend on trained officials and tested procedures, not on the friendship of two leaders.

Fourth, agree on joint tests for advanced AI systems and place safeguards where they can really work, such as in computing centers, financial systems and the supply of biological materials.

Fifth, other countries in Europe, Asia and the Gulf should work together to encourage calm and protect their own interests.

Conclusion

Xi probably left Washington thinking that Trump is a leader who wants praise and deals, and that America is distracted by a war it cannot end. But he also knows that America is still very strong and could react sharply if pushed too far.

For Washington, the lesson is to act steadily and keep its promises.

For Beijing, the lesson is that believing history is on your side can lead to mistakes.

Dr. 🆎 leaves readers with this thought: "The next three months will not decide who leads the century. They may decide whether two leaders who each believe they are winning will learn how much they depend on each other's restraint."

The meetings in Shenzhen and Miami will show whether that lesson has been learned.