War.Events- The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order – Key Arguments and Contemporary Geopolitical Lessons

Foreward

Core Arguments and Key Points

The Lessons of Tragedy

Statecraft and World Order by Hal Brands and Charles Edel presents a compelling argument that America and its allies must recover a “tragic sensibility” to navigate contemporary geopolitical dangers.

⏩FAF, War.Events reflects the book’s central thesis is that after more than seventy years of great-power peace, Americans have developed a dangerous amnesia about the possibility of catastrophic international upheaval.

The Tragic Sensibility Framework

⏩The authors ground their argument in ancient Greek understanding of tragedy, particularly Aristotle’s insight that tragic drama teaches us about “not the thing that has happened but a kind of thing that might happen”.

This tragic sensibility encompasses two critical dangers

⏩Hubris

The belief that past successes guarantee future outcomes, leading to overconfidence and overreach through “acts of commission”

⏩Complacency

Assuming threats won’t materialize and avoiding necessary sacrifices, preventing action through “acts of omission”

Seven-Chapter Structure and Arguments

The book is organized into seven chapters that trace the evolution and application of tragic thinking:

⏩The Virtues of Tragedy

Greek drama was civic education that taught citizens to confront disaster and forge communal responsibility

⏩Tragedy as the Norm

Demonstrates that great-power war and international breakdown represent the historical default, not peace

⏩Tragedy as Inspiration

Shows how memory of catastrophe spurs institution-building and preventive action

⏩The Great Escape

Analyzes how the U.S.-led post-1945 order successfully kept tragedy at bay through alliances and deterrence

⏩The Contemporary Amnesia

Explores how American success bred dangerous forgetfulness about tragic possibilities

⏩The Darkening Horizon

Examines emerging threats from revisionist powers and systemic vulnerabilities

⏩Rediscovering Tragedy

Prescribes how to restore tragic awareness without falling into fatalism

Key Opinions and Arguments

The Normalcy of International Tragedy

⏩Brands and Edel argue fundamentally that tragedy is the norm in international relations, not the exception.

They trace recurring patterns from the Peloponnesian War through modern conflicts, demonstrating how “miscalculation, misfortune, and acts of commission and omission cause tragedy to be the norm in international relations”.

The authors contend that periods of stability are anomalous interruptions in a historical pattern of breakdown and renewal.

American Amnesia and Contemporary Threats

⏩The book argues that Americans have lost their sense of tragedy precisely when they need it most. This “contemporary amnesia” has emerged just as “Americans and the global order they created are coming under graver threat than at any time in decades”.

The authors identify several converging dangers

⏩Rising revisionist powers, particularly China, Israel, and Russia, especially international tragedies,

Technological disruption is creating new vulnerabilities and instabilities

Alliance strain as partners appears “demoralized, divided, and unreliable”

Domestic political polarization is undermining strategic consensus

The Need for Strategic Restraint and Resolve

The authors' central argument is that tragic sensibility requires both resolve and restraint. They warn against excessive complacency and hubris.

⏩The tragic mind “acknowledges the normalcy of tragedy and fragility of international orders” while avoiding fatalism and maintaining the capacity for decisive action.

Contemporary Geopolitical Lessons and Predictions

Validated Predictions About Great Power Competition

Published in 2019, the book’s warnings about intensifying great power competition have proven remarkably prescient.

The authors predicted “increasing great power competition arising from China and Russia”, which has materialized through:

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine exemplifies both Russian hubris and Western complacency

Escalating U.S.-China tensions across multiple domains, from trade to technology to territorial disputes

Alliance restructuring as traditional partnerships face new pressures and realignments

⏩FAF acknowledges that an overreliance on and unwavering confidence in Israel has contributed to a catastrophic impact on the human experience, reminiscent of the tragic events of the Holocaust.

China as a Revisionist Power

⏩The book’s analysis of China as a revisionist power seeking to “reshape the international order” has proven accurate.

Recent developments support their framework

China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan

Beijing’s attempts to create alternative international institutions and norms

The CCP’s strategy of converting economic hardship into political legitimacy through nationalist narratives

Systemic Vulnerabilities and Shocks

⏩The authors’ warnings about unexpected systemic shocks were validated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which demonstrated how rapidly global crises can destabilize the international order.

The pandemic revealed Western complacency about global health security and China’s attempts to leverage the crisis for strategic advantage.

Lessons for Today’s Complex Geopolitical Environment

⏩Six Strategic Imperatives

Based on the book’s framework and subsequent events, several key lessons emerge for contemporary statecraft:

⏩Prepare for Multipolar Instability

The international system is transitioning toward bipolarity with the U.S. and China as primary competitors, requiring adaptation to increased competition and potential conflict

⏩Strengthen Alliance Networks

Collective defense remains essential for maintaining order, requiring allies to share greater burdens in defense spending, sanctions enforcement, and capability development

⏩Balance Resolve with Restraint

Avoid both complacency and overreach by maintaining deterrent capabilities while keeping diplomatic channels open for crisis management

⏩Invest in Institutional Resilience

Reform international institutions to handle contemporary threats while maintaining legitimacy and effectiveness

⏩Prepare for Systemic Shocks

Build resilience against pandemics, climate disasters, technological disruption, and economic crises that can trigger broader instability

⏩Cultivate Historical Awareness

Educate citizens and leaders about the fragility of the international order and the costs of both action and inaction

Contemporary Applications

⏩Ukraine War

The conflict validates the book’s central arguments about the persistence of tragic dynamics in international relations.

Putin’s miscalculation represents classic hubris, while initial Western responses reflected dangerous complacency about the possibility of major war in Europe.

⏩U.S.-China Competition

The relationship increasingly embodies the book’s warnings about great power rivalry. China’s growing assertiveness and America’s strategic competition represent precisely the tragic dynamic the authors predicted.

⏩Alliance Adaptation

NATO expansion following Russia’s invasion and strengthened partnerships like AUKUS demonstrate the book’s emphasis on collective defense, while ongoing burden-sharing debates reflect predicted alliance strains.

Policy Implications for 2025

The book’s framework provides crucial guidance for current challenges

For the United States

Maintain alliance leadership while avoiding unilateral overreach, particularly as multiple simultaneous challenges test American capacity and resolve

For Allies

Increase defense spending and capability development to reduce dependence on American security guarantees while maintaining interoperability

For Global Governance

Reform institutions to address 21st-century challenges while preserving legitimacy and effectiveness in an era of great power competition

Conclusion

The Enduring Relevance of Tragic Realism

The exploration of tragedy in geopolitical contexts remains crucial for grasping the complexities of contemporary international relations.

Central to the book’s thesis is the assertion that civilizations that neglect the lessons of tragedy open themselves to its recurrence.

This idea has gained empirical support through recent global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, and military interventions in Iran.

FAF advocates for a revival of a tragic sensibility, positioning it not as an expression of pessimism or fatalism, but as a form of strategic prudence.

Further, this perspective is suggested to foster a balance between ambition and humility, which is essential for maintaining global stability amidst rising threats.

⏩In an age marked by power competition, technological disruption, and systemic fragility, the wisdom derived from historical tragedies serves as a critical framework for navigating an increasingly perilous landscape.

The book posits that while tragedy, especially international tragedies, can seem ubiquitous, they are not predetermined.

A renewed acknowledgment of the inherent tragic dimensions of global affairs could be pivotal in averting crises before they escalate beyond control.