Executive summary
People used to think online ads from Meta (Facebook, Instagram) and Google were safe even during bad economic times.
They did well in 2008 and 2020.
Now in 2026 many experts worry the next recession will hurt these ads much more because the market has changed and there are no easy gains left to grab.
Introduction
Everyone in tech talks about artificial intelligence and whether it is a bubble.
But there is another big worry.
Most money Meta and Google make comes from showing ads.
For years these ads looked strong in bad times.
That may not be true anymore.
History and current status
Back in 2008–2010 the world had a big money crisis.
Google was already big in search ads.
Companies moved money from newspapers and TV to Google because they could see exactly who clicked.
Facebook was small then.
In 2020 COVID shut stores but people stayed home and shopped online.
Both companies made more money from ads even when the economy was bad.
Today in 2026 almost 80 % of all advertising money goes to digital.
Google expects to make around $340 billion from ads soon.
Meta keeps growing fast too. They are very big now.
Key developments
In the last year or two things started to slow.
Meta said the amount of money each user brings in grew much less in some countries.
Google said people clicked ads less often than before.
Companies now check very carefully if ads really bring sales.
New privacy laws make it harder to know exactly who sees an ad.
Some new companies are trying to sell ads too, like ones using artificial intelligence chat tools.
Latest facts and concerns
Right now some types of ads cost less than last year.
Travel companies and luxury stores are already spending less because they think people will buy fewer things soon.
Experts say if a recession comes, digital ad growth could fall to only 8 % instead of 12–15 %.
That is a big drop. There is worry that artificial intelligence can make so much cheap content that companies pay even less to show ads.
Cause-and-effect analysis
Imagine a family feels worried about money. They stop eating out and buying new phones.
Shops notice sales drop so they cut the money they spend on ads. In the past they moved that money to Facebook or Google.
Now almost everyone already advertises online so there is nowhere easy to move the budget. Less ad money means Meta and Google earn less.
They then lay off workers or spend less on new ideas.
Their stock price falls. Workers get paid less in stock. Everything gets harder.
Future steps
Meta is building virtual-reality headsets and glasses to make money in new ways.
Google puts more effort into cloud services for businesses and artificial-intelligence tools companies pay to use.
Both say they will be careful with spending and keep strong cash in the bank.
They also talk about charging advertisers only when they get real sales, not just for showing the ad.
Conclusion
Online ads from Meta and Google are still very strong today.
But they are not safe like before when the economy gets bad.
The next slowdown could hurt them a lot more.
How much depends on how bad the recession gets and how fast people stop spending.
These companies are trying new things to protect themselves.
Investors and workers will watch closely in the coming months.
