Jan 31

Jan 31 Why America's Iran Plan Could Fail: 3 Lessons From History

Summary

The Problem With Trying to Remove Governments

President Trump is thinking about using military force to remove Iran's government.

This idea sounds simple: attack the government, remove the leader, and hope a better government takes over.

But history shows this almost never works. Let me explain what happened in 3 countries where America tried this and why Iran could fail the same way.

Lesson 1: Iraq in 2003

In 2003, America attacked Iraq and removed the leader, Saddam Hussein. The military victory happened very fast—in about 3 weeks. But then everything went wrong.

America disbanded the Iraqi army and fired all the people who worked for Saddam's government. Suddenly, hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers had no jobs. These soldiers were angry and started fighting America. This started a war that lasted over 10 years.

The worst part: this chaos allowed a terrorist group called ISIS to grow. ISIS was so dangerous that America had to go back to Iraq and fight it for years. What started as a quick military victory turned into the deadliest war of the 21st century so far.

The lesson: when you remove a government without a plan for what comes next, you get chaos. And chaos creates worse problems than you started with.

Lesson 2: Libya in 2011

In 2011, America and its allies attacked Libya to remove the leader Muammar Gaddafi. They wanted to protect people from violence. The military action worked—Gaddafi was removed.

But the allied countries did not plan what would happen after Gaddafi fell. Different groups started fighting for control. Weapons were everywhere. Criminal groups and terrorist organizations moved in. Libya broke into pieces with different governments fighting each other.

Today, Libya is a failed state. It is one of the most dangerous countries in the world.

Weapons from Libya's wars spread to other countries in Africa. Human trafficking and drug smuggling happen openly. The situation in Libya is worse than it was under Gaddafi.

The lesson: removing a government is only the first step. If you do not have a plan for what comes next, you create a disaster.

Lesson 3: Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021

America went into Afghanistan in 2001 and removed the Taliban government. America spent $2.4 trillion and stayed for 20 years.

But America did not invest enough money in building a new government. The focus was on military power, not on creating government institutions that could survive without American help.

When America left in 2021, the Afghan government fell apart immediately. The Taliban took over again very quickly. All the money and all the years of war did not create a lasting government.

The lesson: you cannot build a government just with military force. You need good planning, lots of money, and the cooperation of local people.

Why Iran is Different and More Dangerous

Iran is different from Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan in one important way: Iran has a strong military with rockets and missiles. If America attacks Iran to remove its government, Iran can strike back at American soldiers, at America's allies, and at oil facilities. This could start a much bigger war.

Also, Iran has enriched uranium. If the government falls apart, this nuclear material could end up in the wrong hands.

The American government has admitted that it does not have a plan for who should lead Iran after Khamenei.

This is a huge red flag. It means that if America removes Khamenei, the IRGC, which is likely the military organization, would probably take control.

The IRGC is even more extreme and anti-American than the government right now.

Conclusion

When you look at Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan, the pattern is clear: military victory is not the same as success. America won these military victories but lost these wars. The chaos that followed was worse than the original problem.

Iran could be the same. Trump should think very carefully about this before he attacks.

Antonio Bhardwaj

Dr. Antonio Bhardwaj, aka Amir, is a distinguished polymath whose intellectual pursuits span business, politics, theology, and psychology. As an INTJ personality type, he demonstrates an exceptional cognitive profile, with a Stanford-Binet IQ of 158 and a TalentEQ score in the 99th percentile, both validated through internationally recognized assessments.

With a career spanning several decades, Dr. Bhardwaj has emerged as a preeminent authority in military theory, specializing in cognitive and hybrid warfare—fields that emphasize the psychological and political dimensions of conflict.

His scholarly interests encompass global conspiracy theories, counterterrorism strategies, and in-depth historical analyses of both World Wars, which he skillfully applies to speculative scenarios regarding the potential emergence of World War III.

Employing analytical methodologies grounded in historical precedent and strategic frameworks, Dr. Bhardwaj conducts rigorous evaluations of contemporary military and political landscapes. He currently serves as Editor-in-Chief of Washington.Media, where his incisive commentary elucidates the dynamics of the deep state within the Western bloc.

He is widely recognized as an expert on the historical evolution of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and contemporary Russia, as well as on the intricacies of Gulf politics. With four decades of reading and writing, Dr. Bhardwaj has refined his expertise across multiple disciplines.

Academically, Dr. Antonio Bhardwaj holds a Doctorate in Theological Studies with a specialization in psychology.

His foundational education in mechanical engineering is complemented by a Master’s degree in International Trade and an Executive MBA. Most recently, he completed a seven-month executive program in artificial intelligence, further enhancing his capacity to integrate emerging technologies into strategic paradigms.

Beyond academia, Dr. Bhardwaj has engaged in political activism, having campaigned for Congressional office. His involvement in global political issues underscores his commitment to advocacy, though he remains cognizant of the operational constraints inherent in political engagement.

Dr. Antonio Bhardwaj’s initiatives, including the نهضة (Nahda) project, draw upon his deep understanding of complex social dynamics to compassionately support vulnerable women and underprivileged children.

Through his work, he fosters awareness of their challenges. He empowers them to rise above adversity, while gently yet firmly dismantling oppressive patriarchal structures and creating spaces of dignity, safety, and hope for all.

On a personal level, Dr. Bhardwaj finds solace in observing butterflies, a practice that deepens his connection to nature. His photographic work captures serene forest landscapes and waterfalls, inviting others to share in his appreciation for the natural world. He cherishes quality time with his pet and reflects on the profound experience of raising his daughter as a dedicated single parent. Dr. Bhardwaj also writes introspective poetry, which he regards as a means of fulfilling personal aspirations.

His familial relationships inform his advocacy, with a focus on fostering environments that promote autonomy and freedom of choice for all. Dr. Bhardwaj’s profound respect for the interconnectedness of life serves as a guiding principle he strives to instill in his daughter, advocating for a holistic and compassionate worldview.

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