Jan 31

Jan 31 Is Iran the Next Venezuela? The Quick Answer

Summary

What just happened in Venezuela?

On January 3, 2026, the United States sent soldiers to Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro. They took him from his home and brought him to America to face criminal charges. His Vice President took over the government and stayed in power. This operation worked because Venezuela was weak.

Now people are asking: Will the same thing happen to Iran?

The answer is no. Here is why.

Venezuela was weak. Iran is strong.

Venezuela: 120,000 soldiers total. Weak military equipment. No nuclear weapons. No long-range missiles. No powerful friends like Russia or China helping it. Maduro was the only leader. When he was gone, the government could easily continue with his Vice President.

Iran: 1 million soldiers total. Modern missiles that can hit targets 2,000 kilometers away. Can make nuclear bomb material in 2 weeks. Russia and China provide military equipment. Has something called the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) with 190,000 soldiers.

The IRGC is not loyal to one person—it is a giant organization designed to survive even if the top leader is removed.

Think of it this way. Venezuela was like a house with one pillar. Take away the pillar (Maduro), the house still stands because there are other pillars (Vice President, military). But Iran is like a house with 100 pillars. Even if you remove the top pillar, 99 pillars are still holding it up. The house does not fall down.

Why the IRGC makes Iran different

The IRGC runs 50% of Iran's economy. It has its own army, navy, and air force. It controls the secret police. It has millions of people working for it. These people have jobs, power, and money. They will fight to keep these things.

In Venezuela, the military just followed Maduro's orders. There was no big organization like the IRGC. So when Maduro was captured, there was nothing holding things together.

What about Iran's protests?

Right now in January 2026, thousands of Iranians are protesting. They are angry because the economy is broken and prices are too high. The government killed hundreds of protesters. This looks bad for the government.

But here is the important thing: The protests have not toppled the government. The army has not switched sides. The security forces are still loyal to the system. Even though people are angry, the government's military is strong enough to stay in power.

Will there be a war?

The United States could bomb Iran's nuclear sites. American planes are much better than Iranian planes. America would probably win the battle.

But Iran can fight back. Iran can shoot missiles at American ships and military bases. Iran can block the Strait of Hormuz (the waterway through which 20% of the world's oil passes). This would cause huge problems for the global economy.

So even though America has superior military power, actually going to war with Iran would be very difficult and very costly.

The bottom line

Iran will not become the next Venezuela because:

First, Iran has a huge, well-organized military (IRGC) that would keep fighting even if the top leader was removed.

Second, Iran has nuclear weapons and missiles. Venezuela had neither.

Third, Russia and China are helping Iran. Nobody was helping Venezuela.

Fourth, even though Iran has protests and economic problems, its security forces remain strong and loyal to the system.

Venezuela was a relatively weak country with a weak government. Iran is a relatively strong country with a strong military. These are two completely different situations. The comparison makes good headlines, but it does not match reality.

Antonio Bhardwaj

Dr. Antonio Bhardwaj, aka Amir, is a distinguished polymath whose intellectual pursuits span business, politics, theology, and psychology. As an INTJ personality type, he demonstrates an exceptional cognitive profile, with a Stanford-Binet IQ of 158 and a TalentEQ score in the 99th percentile, both validated through internationally recognized assessments.

With a career spanning several decades, Dr. Bhardwaj has emerged as a preeminent authority in military theory, specializing in cognitive and hybrid warfare—fields that emphasize the psychological and political dimensions of conflict.

His scholarly interests encompass global conspiracy theories, counterterrorism strategies, and in-depth historical analyses of both World Wars, which he skillfully applies to speculative scenarios regarding the potential emergence of World War III.

Employing analytical methodologies grounded in historical precedent and strategic frameworks, Dr. Bhardwaj conducts rigorous evaluations of contemporary military and political landscapes. He currently serves as Editor-in-Chief of Washington.Media, where his incisive commentary elucidates the dynamics of the deep state within the Western bloc.

He is widely recognized as an expert on the historical evolution of the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and contemporary Russia, as well as on the intricacies of Gulf politics. With four decades of reading and writing, Dr. Bhardwaj has refined his expertise across multiple disciplines.

Academically, Dr. Antonio Bhardwaj holds a Doctorate in Theological Studies with a specialization in psychology.

His foundational education in mechanical engineering is complemented by a Master’s degree in International Trade and an Executive MBA. Most recently, he completed a seven-month executive program in artificial intelligence, further enhancing his capacity to integrate emerging technologies into strategic paradigms.

Beyond academia, Dr. Bhardwaj has engaged in political activism, having campaigned for Congressional office. His involvement in global political issues underscores his commitment to advocacy, though he remains cognizant of the operational constraints inherent in political engagement.

Dr. Antonio Bhardwaj’s initiatives, including the نهضة (Nahda) project, draw upon his deep understanding of complex social dynamics to compassionately support vulnerable women and underprivileged children.

Through his work, he fosters awareness of their challenges. He empowers them to rise above adversity, while gently yet firmly dismantling oppressive patriarchal structures and creating spaces of dignity, safety, and hope for all.

On a personal level, Dr. Bhardwaj finds solace in observing butterflies, a practice that deepens his connection to nature. His photographic work captures serene forest landscapes and waterfalls, inviting others to share in his appreciation for the natural world. He cherishes quality time with his pet and reflects on the profound experience of raising his daughter as a dedicated single parent. Dr. Bhardwaj also writes introspective poetry, which he regards as a means of fulfilling personal aspirations.

His familial relationships inform his advocacy, with a focus on fostering environments that promote autonomy and freedom of choice for all. Dr. Bhardwaj’s profound respect for the interconnectedness of life serves as a guiding principle he strives to instill in his daughter, advocating for a holistic and compassionate worldview.

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