Sometimes grown-ups make promises to keep the peace with people they do not like.
In January 2026, Israel and Iran made secret promises to each other. Israel said, "We will not attack you first." Iran said, "We will not attack you first either." These promises came through Russia, which acted like a friend between two kids who fight a lot.
The problem is that these promises are already becoming weaker. Let me explain why.
First, think about what happened before. In June 2025, Israel and Iran had a real war. Israel dropped bombs on Iran's military bases. Iran sent missiles and drones back at Israel. Many people died. After two weeks, America made them stop fighting. Both countries hurt each other badly. When you fight that hard, you do not forget it. You stay scared.
That is why they needed the secret promises. Both sides were scared that the other side might start fighting again. Israel was worried Iran might attack first. Iran was worried Israel might attack first. So Russia carried messages back and forth saying, "Do not attack us first, and we will not attack you first." This made both countries feel a little safer.
But now something is going wrong with this plan. An American president named Donald Trump is saying scary things. Trump says America might attack Iran too. He says he will help Israel attack Iran. He says if Iran does anything to rebuild its weapons, America will "very quickly eradicate that buildup." When Trump says these things, it makes the promises between Israel and Iran feel less true.
Think of it like this: Imagine you promise your friend, "I will not punch you if you do not punch me." But then your friend hears that your older brother said, "I am going to come punch you anyway." Now your friend does not believe your promise anymore. Your friend thinks, "Maybe he will not punch me, but his brother will, so I better punch first." This is what is happening with Israel, Iran, and America.
Second, Iran has a big problem inside the country. In December 2025, the Iranian people started protesting. They are angry about problems with money and government. The government is using soldiers and police to stop the protesters. Many people have been killed or hurt. The Iranian leaders are so busy dealing with these problems that they cannot think clearly about anything else. When your house is on fire, you do not worry about someone down the street.
This is a serious problem for keeping promises. The people in charge of Iran right now are fighting for their own safety. They are not thinking about long-term agreements with Israel. They are thinking about staying alive and keeping control of the government.
Third, the promises do not really mean much anyway. When Israel said, "We will not attack you first," that is not the same as saying "We will never attack you" or "We will stop thinking about attacking you." The promises just say, "Right now, we will not attack." But "right now" can change tomorrow. The promises are like saying, "Okay, we will not fight today." But nobody knows about tomorrow.
What does this mean? It means the secret deal is probably not going to last very long. In a few weeks or months, one side might stop believing the promises. Or America might do something that makes keeping the promises impossible. When that happens, the world will be dangerous again.
The important thing to understand is that secret promises between enemies only work when both sides really want them to work. Once one side stops believing the promises, or once something happens that makes keeping them impossible, the promises become worthless.
That is where we are heading right now with Israel and Iran. The quiet is not peace. It is just a pause before the fighting might start again.
