Elon Musk’s Recent Claims About Social Security Fraud: Analysis and Facts

Introduction

Elon Musk recently made headlines with dramatic allegations regarding fraud in the U.S. Social Security system, raising questions about their accuracy and political implications.

His claims about stolen Social Security numbers, widespread fraud, and connections to immigration have generated significant controversy.

Musk’s Latest Allegations

On April 1-2, 2025, Musk claimed during a live stream that an individual would be imminently arrested for stealing 400,000 Social Security numbers and personal information from the Social Security Administration database. “I believe that someone is going to be arrested tomorrow.

This is someone who stole 400,000 Social Security numbers and personal information from the Social Security database,” Musk stated.

He alleged this individual was “selling social security numbers and all of the identification information for people to steal money from Social Security.”

Musk made these comments during a tele-rally supporting Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel when asked whether Attorney General Pam Bondi planned to prosecute Social Security fraud.

According to ABC News, Musk’s public disclosure of an alleged planned arrest disturbed top law enforcement officials familiar with the ongoing federal investigation.

Political Connections and Immigration Claims

Musk explicitly linked the alleged security breach to illegal immigration and voter fraud. “This is a particular avenue of fraud for illegal immigrants and voter fraud because the main way that identification is established in the United States is via social security.”

Musk explained. He further alleged that “Democrats have taken every part of the government that could be bent towards providing financial incentives for illegal immigrants.”

These statements align with Musk's broader claims since his appointment as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

During a rally in Wisconsin, Musk and DOGE employee Antonio Gracias displayed a chart purportedly showing over 5 million non-citizens issued Social Security numbers between 2021 and 2025, which Musk characterized as a “massive financial incentive” for illegal immigration.

Assessing the Accuracy of Musk’s Claims

Official Data vs. Musk’s Assertions

Musk’s allegations about massive fraud in Social Security represent a significant departure from official government figures:

Scale of Fraud

Musk has suggested that fraud in entitlement programs amounts to “$500 billion to $700 billion” annually. However, the Social Security inspector general reported $71.8 billion in improper payments from fiscal years 2015 through 2022—less than 1% of benefits paid during that period.

Deceased Beneficiaries

Musk claimed that “20 million people who are dead are marked as alive in the Social Security database”. Yet the Social Security Administration’s acting commissioner, Lee Dudek, rejected these claims, stating, “These individuals are not necessarily receiving benefits.” The inspector general found about $300 million in payments after death over about two decades, with roughly one-third of those funds recovered.

Payments Without SSNs

Musk claimed over $100 billion annually goes to individuals without Social Security Numbers. Official statistics do not support this figure.

Expert Responses to Musk’s Claims

Former Social Security commissioner Michael Astrue criticized the DOGE team’s approach, suggesting they lack expertise in the Social Security Administration’s systems, particularly in understanding COBOL. This programming language underpins many Social Security operations.

The New York Times characterized Musk’s assertions about Social Security as “unfounded and frequently misleading.”

Despite claims about undocumented immigrants abusing Social Security, reports indicate that undocumented immigrants contribute more to Social Security than they take.

Context

Musk’s Role and History of Claims

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

President Donald Trump appointed Musk to lead DOGE, which is tasked with optimizing government processes and reducing expenditures.

His team has been working inside the Social Security Administration for several weeks, claiming to have found various inefficiencies and frauds.

Pattern of Controversial Statements

Musk has a documented history of making bold, often unverified claims about government programs:

He described Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.”

He claimed the magnitude of fraud in federal entitlements “exceeds the combined sum of every private scam you’ve ever heard by FAR.”

He has repeatedly misled the public about federal spending while working to cut that spending.

What We Know vs. What We Don’t

Confirmed Facts

The Government Accountability Office estimated that $233 billion to $521 billion in fraudulent payments are made across the federal government annually (not just Social Security).

Fraud does exist within Social Security, though at much lower levels than Musk claims.

Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has been granted significant Social Security Administration data and systems access.

Unverified Claims

There has been no official confirmation of the arrest Musk predicted regarding the alleged theft of 400,000 Social Security numbers.

Musk’s specific allegations connecting Social Security fraud to immigration lack independent verification.

The dramatic scale of fraud Musk alleges remains unsubstantiated by independent government watchdogs.

Conclusion

Elon Musk’s recent statements about Social Security fraud significantly exaggerate the scale of the problem compared to official government statistics and expert assessments.

While fraud certainly exists within the system, Musk’s claims of massive theft, widespread payments to deceased individuals, and extensive abuse by undocumented immigrants are not supported by available evidence.

His public disclosure of an alleged pending arrest and continued focus on connecting Social Security fraud to immigration suggests political motivations that go beyond simple government efficiency concerns.

As with many of Musk’s provocative statements, these claims should be evaluated critically against verified data and expert analysis rather than accepted at face value.