Global IPOs 2025: A Tale of Two Markets

Executive Summary

2025 IPO Divide: Winners and Laggards Emerge

The global Initial Public Offering (IPO) market in 2025 has been defined by a synchronized but uneven recovery.

While the United States and India have driven a surge in global volumes—capitalizing on easing monetary policies and robust economic fundamentals—the landscape in Greater China presents a complex anomaly.

Contrary to the assumption that low mainland Chinese IPO figures are solely the result of companies flocking to Hong Kong, the primary driver remains a deliberate and stringent domestic regulatory overhaul.

While Hong Kong has indeed rebounded as a preferred offshore venue, it has not fully absorbed the volume lost from the mainland, leading to a net contraction in total Chinese listings.

This report analyzes the structural divergence between the “quality-first” constriction in China’s A-share market and the liquidity-driven expansions seen elsewhere.

Introduction

Diverging Fortunes: The Global IPO Rollercoaster of 2025

After the volatility of 2023 and the tentative stabilization of 2024, the global IPO market entered a robust recovery phase in late 2025.

The shift in central bank policies—most notably the Federal Reserve’s pivot to interest rate cuts in late 2024—reignited risk appetite among institutional investors.

Capital that had been parked in money market funds began deploying into equities, seeking growth in a stabilizing macroeconomic environment.

However, this rising tide has not lifted all boats equally.

While Western markets and India are witnessing a listing boom, the Chinese market is undergoing a profound structural reset, creating a bifurcated global landscape where regulatory policy, rather than capital availability, dictates flow.

Key Developments in 2025

The Western and Indian Resurgence

The United States and India emerged as the twin engines of global issuance in 2025.

In the U.S., proceeds surged by over 50% in the first half of the year, driven by large-cap technology listings and a revival of private equity exits.

India’s market performance was even more dramatic, with deal volume tripling in the third quarter alone, fueled by domestic retail participation and high economic growth rates.

The Hong Kong Rebound

Hong Kong regained its status as a top global listing venue in 2025, rebounding from a multi-year slump.

A combination of Beijing’s supportive policy measures and a streamlined vetting process for specialized technology firms helped the city attract significant capital.

However, this resurgence is distinct from the mainland’s contraction; Hong Kong has become a safe harbor for international-facing Chinese firms, particularly those in sectors like biotech and autonomous driving, which face fewer hurdles offshore than onshore.

The A-Share Constriction

Mainland China’s A-share market (Shanghai and Shenzhen) experienced its quietest year in over a decade.

IPO proceeds fell to levels not seen since 2014, with regulators strictly limiting new supply.

This was not a market failure but a policy success: authorities effectively paused the pipeline to prioritize market stability, improve the quality of listed entities, and protect retail investors from liquidity dilution.

Facts and Concerns

Divergent Data Points

Global IPO proceeds rose approximately 41% year-to-date in 2025, with Q3 alone witnessing an 89% jump in issuance value compared to the previous year.

In stark contrast, mainland China’s IPO deal count and proceeds dropped by roughly 70-80% year-over-year.

The Valuation Gap

A key concern for issuers is the valuation discrepancy.

While Hong Kong offers certainty of execution, liquidity in the Hong Kong market—though improving—often supports lower valuation multiples than the A-share market historically did.

Companies are effectively trading the “high valuation, low certainty” of Shanghai for the “market-clearing price, high certainty” of Hong Kong.

Private Equity Liquidity Trap

The constriction in A-share listings has created a significant backlog of private equity and venture capital exits in China.

With the primary exit route blocked or severely narrowed, there is growing pressure on these funds to seek liquidity in Hong Kong or through M&A, though these alternatives often result in lower returns than a domestic IPO would have realized in previous years.

Cause and Effect Analysis: The Displacement Hypothesis

IPO Boom or Bust? How 2025 Redefined Going Public

The hypothesis that low listing numbers in mainland China are caused simply by companies moving to Hong Kong is partially true but fundamentally incomplete.

The Regulatory “Freeze” (Primary Cause)

The primary cause of the low A-share volume is supply-side restriction, not demand-side substitution.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) implemented the “Nine National Provisions” in 2024, significantly raising the bar for financial performance, R&D investment, and dividend capacity.

This “high-quality development” strategy meant that hundreds of companies that would have listed in previous years were either rejected or voluntarily withdrew their applications. They did not choose to leave; they were effectively barred from entering.

The Hong Kong Spillover (Secondary Effect)

As a direct effect of this mainland freeze, Hong Kong became the primary beneficiary of the “overflow.”

Companies that were fundamentally sound but faced indefinite delays in Shanghai—or those in sectors no longer favored by mainland industrial policy—pivoted to Hong Kong.

This explains why Hong Kong’s volume rose as China’s fell. However, the math is not one-to-one. For every ten companies blocked from a mainland IPO, only perhaps two or three successfully pivoted to a Hong Kong listing.

The remaining seven are likely still private, waiting for policy clarity.

Thus, the total volume of Chinese IPOs globally is down, proving that Hong Kong is a pressure valve, not a complete replacement.

Future Steps and Outlook

Normalization of A-Shares

Looking toward 2026, the mainland market is expected to gradually normalize, though it will not return to the frenetic pace of 2020-2021.

The “quality over quantity” regime is likely permanent, meaning the A-share market will evolve into a venue reserved for “national champions” and hard-tech strategic assets.

Integration of Markets

We expect further integration between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges. Initiatives encouraging leading mainland companies to list in Hong Kong—and potentially the expansion of the Stock Connect schemes to include primary IPO subscriptions—could blur the lines between the two pools of liquidity.

Global Bifurcation

The global market will likely remain bifurcated.

The US and India will continue to operate on market-driven dynamics, sensitive to interest rates and inflation.

In contrast, Greater China’s IPO market will increasingly operate on policy-driven dynamics, where listing volumes are a function of state strategic goals rather than just capital market demand.

Conclusion

IPO Boom: US & Asia Surge, Europe Lags in 2025 Split

The low IPO figures in mainland China in 2025 are the result of a deliberate surgical restructuring of the capital markets, rather than a mere migration of capital to Hong Kong.

While Hong Kong has successfully revitalized its role as a premier offshore financing hub, it is absorbing only a fraction of the demand displaced from the mainland.

The global IPO market has effectively split into two spheres: a western and Indian sphere driven by cyclical macroeconomic recovery, and a Chinese sphere currently undergoing a structural regulatory reset.

For investors, this signals that while the quantity of Chinese listings may remain suppressed, the cohorts that do successfully list—whether in Shanghai or Hong Kong—have passed a far more rigorous quality filter than their predecessors.