Summary
What is Happening: The Simple Picture
Something important is changing in American foreign policy in early 2026, and most people don't realize how significant it is.
President Trump, now in his second term, has been shifting America's approach to China and its allies in Asia. Instead of continuing the previous policy that supported Japan and Taiwan against China's growing power,
Trump's team is focusing on making deals with China's leader, Xi Jinping. They've already scheduled a trip to Beijing in April 2026 and are planning up to four meetings with Xi during this year alone.
The problem is that while Trump is trying to make friends with China, America's closest allies in Asia—Japan and Taiwan—are being left behind. This creates a dangerous situation where China feels more confident to push Japan and Taiwan harder, while Japan and Taiwan worry whether America will actually help them if things get worse.
Why This Happened: The Trump Administration's Thinking
To understand why Trump's team is taking this new approach, you need to know how they think about foreign policy. Trump believes in what he calls "America First"—the idea that American decisions should focus on American interests and benefits. He doesn't want America spending money or military resources on other countries' problems if America doesn't get something important in return.
When Trump looks at Asia, he sees a region where wealthy countries like Japan and South Korea should be paying more for their own defense, not relying on America to do it. He also sees a chance to make business deals with China that could benefit American farmers (through agricultural purchases) and American companies (through technology access). This explains why Trump has relaxed rules on selling advanced computer chips to China and why he's planning to visit Xi in Beijing—he wants to negotiate deals that put money in American pockets.
The Biden administration that came before Trump had a different philosophy. It believed America should be a strong partner to its Asian allies and should try to limit China's power through alliances and military strength. Trump's team thinks that approach costs too much money and ties America down to other countries' problems.
How This Affects Japan: Economic Punishment and Political Pressure
To see the real problem with Trump's approach, look at what's happening to Japan. In November 2025, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said something that makes a lot of sense from Japan's perspective: if China attacks Taiwan, it would be very bad for Japan and Japan might have to defend itself militarily. This was not a new idea—Japan had said similar things before. But China reacted with tremendous anger.
China's response has been harsh. First, China stopped selling certain materials called "rare earths" to Japan. These materials are essential for making car parts, electronics, and military equipment. China also banned the export of products that could be used for military purposes.
The result? Japan is suffering economically. Economic experts at a Japanese bank estimated that if China keeps these restrictions for just 3 months, Japan will lose about 660 billion yen—that's real money that would damage Japanese businesses. If the restrictions last a full year, Japan loses about 2.6 trillion yen, which would reduce Japan's economic growth by about 0.43%.
This economic punishment from China is a way of saying to Japan: "Don't criticize us, don't suggest you'll help Taiwan, and stay quiet." It's like a store owner breaking the windows of a shop that disagrees with him. What makes this worse for Japan is that America is silent. Japan expected America to say "stop this, it's unfair," but the Trump administration said very little. That silence tells Japan that America might not stand up for it if China punishes it more.
How This Affects Taiwan: Military Pressure and Growing Loneliness
Taiwan faces an even scarier situation than Japan. Taiwan is an island near China with about 23 million people that wants to remain democratic and independent. China says Taiwan belongs to China and has threatened to use military force to take it. For decades, America has basically said: "We'll help Taiwan defend itself if China attacks." Taiwan relied on this promise.
But the Trump administration is changing that message. Instead of saying America "opposes" China attacking Taiwan, the new official language says America "does not support" such an attack.
This might sound like the same thing, but in the world of diplomatic language, these words mean very different things. "Oppose" means America will do something to stop it. "Does not support" just means America doesn't like it—but doesn't promise America will do anything.
Meanwhile, China is testing military capabilities around Taiwan constantly. In December 2025, China conducted huge military exercises called "Justice Mission 2025.”
These exercises practiced surrounding Taiwan and preventing supplies from getting in—essentially a military blockade. The exercises included practice runs for targeting Taiwan's government leaders with missiles and special forces raids. The Chinese military has even built a fake copy of Taiwan's presidential palace in mainland China to practice attacking it.
These military exercises happen almost every month now. In January 2026 alone, Chinese military aircraft flew near Taiwan 274 times. Every single week, Chinese jets or ships are in areas near Taiwan, testing Taiwan's defenses and sending a message: we're getting ready, we could attack anytime.
What Makes It Worse: Japan and Taiwan Feel Abandoned
The really dangerous part of Trump's strategy is how it makes Japan and Taiwan feel toward each other and toward America. Japan's Prime Minister has actually said that if America doesn't help Taiwan, then the America-Japan alliance will collapse. Think about that: Japan is so worried that America is abandoning them that they're warning the alliance itself could fall apart.
Taiwan meanwhile is watching all of this and thinking: maybe Japan won't help us because Japan is angry at America; maybe America really has abandoned us. Taiwan is spending more and more money on its military, but many defense experts say that without American military support, Taiwan cannot defeat China militarily. Taiwan can only survive if China chooses not to attack—and right now, China feels bolder because America seems distracted.
Here's a specific example: Taiwan wants to buy more American weapons and missiles. The Trump administration approved a large package—$11 billion worth. But at the same time, Trump told Taiwan that if it wants America's help, Taiwan has to spend 10% of all its government money on military equipment. That's a lot. And it had to promise to invest $500 billion in American factories.
While offering these things, Trump and his team haven't said clearly: "America will defend Taiwan if China attacks." That's a scary position for Taiwan to be in.
What This Means for the Future: April 2026 and Beyond
In April 2026, Trump will visit Beijing. At this meeting, experts expect Trump might offer China something big—maybe he'll change what America officially says about Taiwan. Right now, the Taiwan Relations Act and official American documents say America committed to helping Taiwan. Trump's team might change that language to give China more flexibility and make Taiwan less sure about American help.
If this happens, it would be a huge change. For 40+ years, American presidents from both political parties promised to help Taiwan stay independent. Trump seems willing to throw that promise away if it helps him make a deal with Xi Jinping.
Looking ahead, the next few months are critical. If Congress and America's allies push back hard enough, Trump's team might not go as far as they're planning. But right now, Japan and Taiwan are both worried that America is choosing to be friendly with China instead of protecting them.
What Should Happen
America's allies need clarity about what America will and will not do.
Japan needs to know: will America support Japan if China punishes Japan economically?
Taiwan needs to know: will America help Taiwan if China attacks?
And both countries need to know that America takes these commitments seriously and won't trade them away for a business deal or a friendly dinner with China's leader.
The April 2026 meeting in Beijing will show whether Trump is willing to give up America's promises to its Asian allies for better relations with China.
For Japan and Taiwan, this is not just about politics or diplomacy. It's about whether their people can remain free and independent, or whether they'll have to accept China's control.
And for America, it's about whether alliances and promises still mean something, or whether they're just temporary arrangements to be dropped whenever it becomes convenient.
