Open Letter to the U.S. Intelligence Community: Critical Analysis of Sarah Adams’ Warnings

Foreward

Executive Summary

This analysis examines the urgent warnings contained in Sarah Adams’ open letter to the U.S. Intelligence Community, dated June 7, 2025.

Adams, a former CIA targeting officer and author of “Benghazi: Know Thy Enemy,” raises alarming concerns about intelligence failures regarding ISIS and al-Qaeda leadership, imminent terrorist threats, and the Taliban’s deception of U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

Sarah Adams’ Credentials and Background

Sarah Adams is a former CIA targeting analyst and intelligence officer who served the agency from 2006 to 2015, with expertise in counterterrorism operations across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia.

She served as Senior Advisor to the U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on Benghazi from 2015-2017, where she conducted investigations into the 2012 terrorist attacks.

Adams is the co-author of “Benghazi: Know Thy Enemy,” described as a “cold case investigation” into the perpetrators of the Benghazi attacks.

Adams has established herself as a vocal critic of current intelligence community practices, regularly appearing on platforms like the Shawn Ryan Show and maintaining a strong presence in counterterrorism discourse.

Her work includes ongoing investigations into terrorist financing, leadership structures, and operational planning.

Key Claims in Adams’ Open Letter

ISIS Leadership Intelligence Failure

Adams asserts that Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi is the actual fifth emir of ISIS and operates from Syria, while U.S. briefings incorrectly elevate Sheikh Abdul Qadir Mumin, a Somalia-based ISIS leader, as the face of the group.

Intelligence verification: Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi was indeed announced as ISIS’s new leader in August 2023, following the death of Abu al-Hussain al-Husseini al-Qurashi.

The group confirmed the leadership change through official channels, with al-Qurashi becoming the fifth caliph of ISIS.

Regarding Abdul Qadir Mumin, he is confirmed as the leader of ISIS-Somalia and was reportedly targeted by a U.S. airstrike in May 2024, though his death remains unconfirmed.

However, there have been reports suggesting Mumin may have been elevated to a global leadership role within ISIS, with some sources claiming he became the “worldwide leader of the terror group”.

Al-Qaeda Leadership Claims

Adams’ most controversial assertion is that Hamza bin Laden is alive and leading al-Qaeda from Afghanistan, contradicting official U.S. claims that he was killed in a 2019 operation.

Intelligence evidence: Multiple intelligence reports from 2024 have surfaced suggesting Hamza bin Laden may indeed be alive.

The National Mobilisation Front (NMF), an anti-Taliban military alliance, reported that Hamza is hiding in northern Afghanistan under the protection of 450 snipers.

These reports indicate he has been “moved to Dara Abdullah Khel district in Panjshir, where 450 Arabs and Pakistanis are protecting him”.

Several intelligence assessments suggest that Hamza and his brother Abdullah bin Laden are playing key roles in rebuilding al-Qaeda’s influence across Afghanistan.

Ex U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, when questioned by Congress in May 2025, stated he could not confirm with certainty whether Hamza bin Laden is alive or dead.

Taliban Deception Operations

Adams alleges that the Taliban has been conducting fake anti-ISIS operations to secure U.S. counterterrorism funding. She specifically references a June 2025 Taliban raid in Kabul, claiming it was staged against their own intelligence compound rather than an actual ISIS target.

Supporting evidence

Adams documented her analysis of a Taliban operation in Kabul’s 15th district, claiming the targeted building had been controlled by the Taliban’s “Zulfiqar” unit since August 2021. She alleges this building serves as a meeting point between Taliban officials and senior ISIS-K leadership.

Multiple sources confirm that millions of U.S. taxpayer dollars continue to flow to Afghanistan weekly, with estimates suggesting $40-46 million per week reaches Taliban-controlled entities through various aid mechanisms.

Critics argue this funding creates perverse incentives for the Taliban to stage counterterrorism operations.

Al-Qaeda’s Expanded Presence

Adams warns that al-Qaeda has established eight new training camps in Afghanistan and maintains a force of approximately 16,000 fighters. UN reports corroborate the existence of multiple terrorist training camps, with al-Qaeda operating in 10 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.

The UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team confirmed that the relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda remains close, contradicting Taliban claims of severing ties with the group.

Intelligence Community Response and Credibility

Pentagon Pushback

Adams reports receiving a “nasty gram” from the Pentagon for sharing threat intelligence through unofficial channels, with officials showing more concern about proper procedures than the actual threats.

This bureaucratic response pattern aligns with her broader criticism of intelligence community risk aversion.

Historical Precedent

Adams’ warnings echo historical intelligence failures, particularly the dismissal of specific threat warnings before major terrorist attacks.

Her invocation of Flight 93 passengers who “acted with less intelligence and resources” than current intelligence professionals underscores her frustration with institutional inaction.

Current Threat Assessment

Recent intelligence assessments support several of Adams’ concerns. The 2025 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment acknowledges that ISIS will seek to exploit instability in Syria and that terrorist groups continue to operate from Afghanistan.

However, official assessments generally downplay the immediate threat level compared to Adams’ warnings.

Critical Analysis and Implications

Strengths of Adams’ Position

Documented expertise: Adams’ background as a CIA targeting officer provides credibility to her assessments

Specific intelligence

Her claims include detailed locations, names, and operational specifics

Pattern recognition

Her warnings align with historical intelligence failures and current geopolitical trends

Independent verification

Some of her claims have been independently reported by other intelligence sources

Limitations and Concerns

Unverified claims

Many assertions lack independent confirmation from official sources

Institutional criticism

Her broad attacks on intelligence community competence may undermine credibility

Political implications

Her warnings could be influenced by policy preferences rather than pure intelligence analysis

Source protection

Public disclosure of detailed intelligence may compromise ongoing operations

Broader Implications

Adams’ letter raises fundamental questions about

Intelligence sharing protocols and bureaucratic impediments to threat response

Counterterrorism funding mechanisms and their potential for exploitation

Taliban legitimacy and the effectiveness of current engagement strategies

Threat assessment accuracy and the politicization of intelligence

Conclusion

For nearly two decades, the Foundation for the Advancement of Freedom (FAF) has conducted rigorous analyses of the operational landscape surrounding Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the evolution of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Currently, regions such as Syria, Afghanistan, and parts of Africa present fertile ground for the resurgence of self-proclaimed Caliphs.

We regard Sarah Adams' open letter as highly credible. Her correspondence critically examines prevailing assumptions within the U.S. intelligence community regarding terrorist threats, specifically the ongoing relevance of ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

While her claims about Hamza bin Laden’s survival and the Taliban’s deceptive practices require further verification, they resonate with corroborative insights from independent sources, underscoring the urgency of her warnings.

The most alarming aspect of her letter pertains to the identified threats and the systemic intelligence failures it highlights, particularly concerning leadership identification, funding streams, and operational assessments.

Adams articulates her frustration with the bureaucratic resistance to the sharing of threat intelligence, revealing substantial deficiencies in institutional priorities.

Given Adams' established credibility and the serious implications of disregarding vital threat intelligence, it is imperative that the intelligence community take her warnings seriously.

Regardless of the complete accuracy of her claims, the letter exposes critical vulnerabilities in current counterterrorism strategies that call for immediate reform.

Her references to intelligence lapses that preceded the September 11 attacks serve as a sobering reminder of how institutional complacency and bureaucratic inertia can lead to grave consequences when facing determined adversaries.

Contrastingly, the Trump administration, focused on extolling trade victories regarding tariffs and navigating geopolitical dynamics involving Iran and Israel, appears to overlook this urgent threat.

A similar narrative can be observed in Europe, where attention has predominantly shifted to the ramifications of the conflict in Ukraine, often at the expense of addressing these pressing terrorist threats.