The Baltic States: Past, Present, and Geopolitical Significance

Introduction

The Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—have emerged as crucial players in European geopolitics despite their relatively small size.

Together occupying 67,612 square miles with a combined population of approximately 6 million, these three nations have a complex history of occupation, independence, and resilience that continues to shape their contemporary reality and relationship with Russia.

The Baltic States: Definition and Geography

The Baltic states are three sovereign nations located in northeastern Europe along the eastern shores of the Baltic Sea. Although often grouped together, each country possesses a distinct cultural and linguistic identity.

Only Latvian and Lithuanian are linguistically related (though still separate languages), while Estonian is closely related to Finnish. Despite these differences, their shared historical experiences and geographic position have created common bonds that unite them politically and strategically.

Historical Formation and Evolution

Early History to Imperial Rule

The Baltic region has been inhabited since ancient times, with the Roman historian Tacitus describing an agricultural people called the Aestii living on the southeastern shores of the Baltic.

Throughout the medieval period, the region experienced various conquests and influences.

Estonia and Latvia endured centuries of domination by a Baltic German aristocracy, while Lithuania enjoyed a period of independent expansion before falling under Polish influence in matters of religion and politics.

Eventually, all three territories became subjects of the Russian Empire under the czars.

Independence After World War I

The collapse of the German and Russian empires during World War I created an opportunity for Baltic independence. In 1918, while under German occupation, national councils in all three territories declared independence and established governments.

Despite attempts by the newly formed Soviet regime to reestablish control, by 1922, all three Baltic states had become recognized members of the international community.

During the interwar period, the Baltic countries adopted parliamentary constitutions, though all three eventually developed authoritarian systems.

In 1934, they formalized their cooperation through the Baltic Entente and the Treaty of Good Understanding and Cooperation.

Soviet Occupation and Nazi Invasion

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in August 1939 set the stage for the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states in June 1940.

The three independent countries were forcibly incorporated as constituent republics of the Soviet Union—an action most Western countries refused to recognize as legal.

Following Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941, the Baltic states fell under German occupation until 1944, when Soviet forces recaptured the region.

The subsequent Soviet occupation from 1944 to 1991 was marked by mass deportations, executions, and cultural suppression, while large numbers of people from other Soviet republics were settled in the Baltic countries.

Regaining Independence

The Baltic nations played a pivotal role in the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In the late 1980s, popular national movements—the Popular Front of Estonia, the Popular Front of Latvia, and Lithuania’s Sajūdis—began coordinating their independence efforts.

A watershed moment came on August 23, 1989, when approximately two million people joined hands to form a human chain spanning 600 kilometers from Tallinn to Vilnius, demonstrating Baltic unity and determination to restore independence.

Following the failed August Coup in Moscow, all three states secured international recognition of their independence, joining the United Nations on September 17, 1991.

Current Socio-Economic and Political Status

Political Development

Since regaining independence, the Baltic states have established themselves as stable democracies integrated into Western institutions.

All three joined NATO and the European Union in 2004, and subsequently adopted the euro as their currency (Estonia in 2011, Latvia in 2014, and Lithuania in 2015).

The Baltic Assembly, established in November 1991, continues to facilitate regional cooperation. While politically stable overall, the region is currently experiencing some domestic political turbulence, with ruling parties facing challenges in the polls.

Economic Transformation

Economically, the Baltic states have undergone remarkable transformation, becoming prosperous market economies with strong ties to Western Europe.

Their main trading partners outside the region include Germany, Finland, Sweden, and, despite geopolitical tensions, Russia.

A significant recent development occurred on February 7, 2025, when the Baltic states completed their disconnection from the Russian-dominated BRELL electricity network, marking a major step toward energy independence.

This transition required years of preparation and significant European Commission investment, reflecting the strategic importance of energy security for the region.

Current Threats and Challenges

Military Concerns

The Baltic states face increasingly serious security concerns. Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has warned that Russia is expanding its armed forces in preparation for a potential conflict with NATO.

Danish intelligence forecasts suggest Russia could be ready to wage a “large-scale war” in Europe within five years if it perceives NATO as weak.

Baltic defense ministers have expressed concerns that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine would allow Russia to redistribute forces toward their borders, rapidly increasing threat levels.

Their exposed geographical position—sharing land borders with Russia and Belarus—makes conventional military threats particularly acute.

Hybrid Warfare and Infrastructure Vulnerability

Beyond conventional military threats, the Baltic states face risks of hybrid warfare. Recent incidents involving underwater cables in the Baltic Sea have highlighted infrastructure vulnerabilities.

With their newly independent but still developing energy systems, any disruption to grid connections could result in significant outages.

Baltic security experts are advocating for decentralized energy systems to enhance resilience, noting that smaller, dispersed energy sources are more difficult to disable than centralized power plants.

Political and Alliance Uncertainties

There are concerns about the stability of the trans-Atlantic alliance, with rumors about potential reductions in NATO troop deployments under changing U.S. administrations.

Baltic officials have expressed that any weakening of NATO’s commitment would significantly impact their security posture.

Why the Baltic States Matter to Russia

Russia’s interest in the Baltic states stems from multiple factors. Historically, these territories were part of both the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, and President Putin has openly expressed belief that they belong in Russia’s sphere of influence.

Strategically, the Baltic states provide NATO with a presence directly on Russia’s border, including the Kaliningrad exclave.

Their active support for Ukraine and advocacy for strong anti-Russian measures within NATO and the EU have further strained relations.

The Russian government frequently raises concerns about treatment of Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltic states, with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recently accusing Baltic governments of institutionalizing “Russophobia” and implementing “segregationist policies”.

The Baltic states’ recent decoupling from Russian energy systems represents a significant loss of influence for Moscow, as Russia can no longer use energy dependency as leverage.

Conclusion

The Baltic states exemplify both the challenges and possibilities of post-Soviet transition. Their successful integration into Western institutions demonstrates remarkable resilience and determination.

However, their geographic position and historical relationship with Russia ensure they remain on the frontline of East-West tensions.

As NATO and EU members, their security concerns have implications far beyond their borders.

Their ability to maintain independence and withstand pressure from Russia serves as a critical test case for the effectiveness of collective security arrangements.

Meanwhile, their ongoing efforts to reduce vulnerability through energy independence and infrastructure security reflect a pragmatic approach to ensuring long-term sovereignty in a challenging geopolitical environment.

The Baltic states’ continued stability and security remain essential not only for regional peace but also for the credibility of the European and transatlantic security architecture as a whole.