Three Nuclear Scorpions: Arms Race Looms -Simple Version

Executive Summary

On February 5, 2026, the last treaty between America and Russia that controls nuclear weapons will expire.

This is New START. When it expires, America and Russia will have no agreement limiting how many nuclear bombs they can make or keep.

This is very dangerous.

To make matters worse, China is building nuclear weapons faster than any country in the world except during the Cold War. China is adding about 100 new nuclear warheads every year. In the future, there might be 1,000 Chinese nuclear bombs.

The metaphor that describes this situation comes from Robert Oppenheimer, the man who invented America's first atomic bomb. He said America and Russia were like two scorpions in a bottle, each able to kill the other but only by dying themselves. Now there is a third scorpion: China.

FAF article explains why this situation is very dangerous for the whole world.

Introduction

This week is very important for world security.

On February 5, 2026, something historic happens. The New START treaty expires.

New START is the last agreement between America and Russia that limits nuclear weapons.

When it expires, there will be no treaty. For the 1st time in more than 50 years, the two countries with 90% of the world's nuclear bombs will have no agreement controlling how many bombs they can have.

But this is not the only problem. At the same time China is building nuclear weapons very quickly. China had 500 nuclear warheads in January 2024.

By January 2025, China had 600 nuclear warheads. That is 100 new warheads in just one year. And China plans to keep adding 80 to 100 warheads every year.

By 2030, China will have 1,000 nuclear warheads. This is the fastest nuclear buildup in 50 years.

So the world faces two big problems at the same time: America and Russia have no treaty controlling their weapons, and China is building nuclear weapons very fast. This combination is very dangerous.

The History

How Nuclear Treaties Worked

After World War II, America and the Soviet Union became enemies. But they both had nuclear weapons. Both countries realized that if they started a nuclear war, everyone would die. So they decided to make rules about nuclear weapons.

Starting in 1969, America and the Soviet Union began talks called SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks).

These talks led to treaties that limited how many nuclear weapons each side could have. The most important treaty was START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty).

The newest START treaty was signed in 2010 by President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. This treaty was called New START.

New START said that America and Russia could each have 1,550 nuclear warheads that are ready to launch.

They also could have 700 missiles and bombers. This treaty helped both countries feel safe because they could count how many weapons the other side had. The treaty had inspectors who could visit weapons sites to check that each side was following the rules.

New START was supposed to expire in 2021. But in February 2021, just before it expired, America and Russia agreed to extend it for five more years.

When New START was first made, it said it could only be extended one time. So there was no way to extend it after 2021. It was going to expire in February 2026, and there was nothing anyone could do about it.

In September 2025, Russia said it would follow New START rules if America also followed them for 1 more year. But President Trump did not agree. Instead, he said he was not worried about New START ending.

Current Status

What Is Happening Now

America has 1,550 nuclear warheads ready to launch. Russia also has about the same number. But starting in February 2026, neither country has to follow any rules. They can make as many nuclear weapons as they want. There is no agreement.

There is no inspection. There is no way to verify that the other side is following rules, because there are no more rules.

At the same time, China is building nuclear weapons very fast. In 2024, China had 600 operational nuclear warheads. This is up from 500 in 2023. This is the fastest growth rate in 50 years. China is planning to have 1,000 warheads by 2030.

By 2035, China might have 1,500 warheads, which is the same as America or Russia.

How is China building so many weapons so fast? China is building 350 new missile silos. These are holes in the ground where missiles are stored. China is building these silos in 6 different places. Some silos already have missiles in them. Some do not. But all of them will eventually have missiles. This is a huge building project.

Why is China doing this? Chinese President Xi Jinping wants China to be a great military power by 2049. Xi says nuclear weapons are very important to China's power. He wants China to be as strong as America and Russia.

America's Response

Bigger Weapons

America is worried about China's nuclear buildup. In March 2024, President Biden approved a secret plan for American nuclear weapons. For the 1st time, the plan says China is the main threat, not just Russia. The plan says America might need to build more nuclear weapons to defend against both Russia and China at the same time.

Some American military experts say America needs 50 percent more nuclear warheads. Instead of 1,550 warheads, America would have 2,300 to 2,500 warheads. They also say America needs 1,000 to 1,500 small nuclear weapons that can be used in regional wars. These are called tactical nuclear weapons.

This is a big change. For the last 50 years, America has tried to reduce the number of nuclear weapons. But now America is thinking about building more weapons.

Why Is This Dangerous?

The problem is that when 1 country builds more weapons, the other countries think they need to build more weapons too. This is called an arms race.

During the Cold War, America and Russia had an arms race like this. America built more weapons, so Russia built more weapons. Russia built more weapons, so America built more weapons again. It never stopped. By the end of the Cold War, America and Russia had tens of thousands of nuclear weapons. They could have destroyed the world many times over.

Now the world is starting the same thing again. China is building more weapons. America is worried, so America is thinking about building more weapons. Russia is worried, so Russia might build more weapons. No one will stop because there is no treaty to make them stop.

This is what Robert Oppenheimer was worried about when he described two scorpions in a bottle.

The metaphor means that America and Russia are like two scorpions in a small bottle. Each scorpion is deadly. But if 1 scorpion tries to kill the other, both scorpions will die. So the two scorpions must be careful not to attack each other.

But now there are three scorpions in the bottle. This is much more dangerous. With three players, the situation becomes more complicated. Each scorpion might attack a different scorpion.

One scorpion might make friends with another scorpion and attack the third.

The three scorpions cannot sit still without attacking.

At least with two scorpions, they understood each other. With three scorpions, no one knows what will happen.

Key Changes

New Strategies

China is changing how it thinks about nuclear weapons. For many years, China said it only wanted a "minimum deterrence."

This means having just enough nuclear weapons to protect itself. If another country attacked China with nuclear weapons, China could attack back and cause serious damage. This would stop the other country from attacking.

But President Xi does not like the "minimum deterrence" idea anymore. Xi wants China to have more options. China is building many different types of nuclear weapons.

Some are big bombs. Some are small bombs. Some can be launched from submarines. Some are launched from the ground. Some might be launched from the air. With all these different options, China thinks it can win a nuclear war with America or Russia.

This is very dangerous because it makes nuclear weapons seem more usable. During the Cold War, people worried about one big nuclear exchange that would destroy everything. If countries have many different sizes of nuclear weapons, they might think they can use a small nuclear weapon and the other side will not respond. But this almost never works.

When one country uses a nuclear weapon, the other country usually attacks back. A small nuclear war turns into a big nuclear war.

China is also preparing to use a strategy called "launch on warning." This means that if China's radar sees that nuclear weapons are coming toward China, China will immediately launch its own nuclear weapons without waiting. The problem is that radar makes mistakes. False alarms happen.

Computers break. If China launches nuclear weapons because of a false alarm, 200 million people might die. And then America would launch nuclear weapons back, and everyone dies.

Concerns

What Could Go Wrong?

Many things could go wrong in this situation.

First, there is no verification. When New START was in place, America and Russia had inspectors who visited each other's weapons sites. The inspectors counted the weapons. They made sure each side was following the rules.

This helped both sides feel confident. Now that New START is expired, there are no inspectors. America does not know exactly how many weapons Russia has. Russia does not know exactly how many weapons America has. This creates fear and uncertainty. When countries are uncertain, they make worse decisions.

2nd, there is no communication. America and Russia have a "hotline" that they can use to talk in an emergency. But this hotline sometimes does not work well. There is no hotline between America and China. If there is a crisis between America and China, the two countries might not be able to talk to each other. They might not understand what the other side is doing. A misunderstanding could turn into a war.

3rd, Russia is preparing to test nuclear weapons again. Russia has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1996. But Russia just quit the agreement that banned nuclear testing. Russia is building things at its test site in the Arctic. Russia might test a nuclear weapon to show it is strong. If Russia tests a weapon, America and China might test weapons too. This would accelerate the arms race.

4th, China might use nuclear weapons to pressure American friends. America has friends in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. These countries are near China. China might say, "If you side with America, we will attack you with nuclear weapons." If China can make these countries believe this threat, the countries might stop listening to America. Then China could take control of Asia without America being able to stop it.

What Happens Next?

In the short term, America might start building more nuclear weapons. This will cost a lot of money. One estimate says it will cost $1 trillion over many years.

In the medium term, Russia might start building more weapons too. Or Russia might test nuclear weapons to show it is still strong.

In the long term, an arms race could happen like the Cold War. America keeps building weapons to stay ahead of China and Russia. Russia keeps building weapons to stay ahead of America. China keeps building weapons to be equal with America and Russia. No one can stop because there is no treaty to stop them. Everyone gets worse off, but no one can change course because if they stop while the other side keeps going, they lose.

Some people say America needs more weapons to be safe. They argue that China is building weapons so fast that America must build weapons too, or America will not be strong enough.

Other people say building more weapons makes the world less safe. They argue that when countries build more weapons, other countries get scared and build more weapons. This creates a cycle that never ends. More weapons do not make anyone safer; they just make the world more dangerous.

Conclusion

A Critical Moment

The world is at a very important moment. New START expires on February 5, 2026. China is building nuclear weapons very fast. America and Russia are thinking about building more weapons. There is no agreement controlling nuclear weapons. For the first time in 50 years.

The 3 scorpions in the bottle must decide what to do. They can try to make a new agreement to control weapons. They can agree to limit how many weapons each side can have. They can agree to let inspectors check weapons. They can agree to talk to each other when there is an emergency.

Or the 3 scorpions can do nothing. They can just start building more weapons. The arms race from the Cold War can start again. The world becomes more dangerous. A small mistake could turn into a nuclear war. Millions of people could die.

Right now, the leaders of America, Russia, and China need to make a choice. The choice will determine if the next 10 years brings peace or danger to the world. This is the most important choice they will make. The time to act is now, not later.