Executive Summary
Michael Shermer wrote Why People Believe Weird Things to explain why normal, intelligent people can believe false or strange ideas.
He said belief comes first and reasoning comes later.
Today, in wars and global tensions, this idea helps explain why countries and leaders sometimes act in rigid or emotional ways.
Introduction
Belief Comes Before Proof
Shermer explains that the brain looks for patterns.
If two events happen close together, people assume they are connected.
For example, if a country increases military spending and another country feels threatened, leaders may assume aggressive intent, even if the action was defensive.
History and Today
From Small Groups to Global Politics
In the past, strange beliefs often stayed in small communities.
Today, the internet spreads ideas worldwide. Social media allows millions to share the same narrative quickly.
In the Russia–Ukraine war, each side tells a different story about history and responsibility. Citizens believe the version that matches their identity.
In U.S.–China tensions, each country believes it is defending itself while the other is expanding power.
Key Developments
Taiwan, Japan, and Regional Tensions
When analysts talk about a possible 2027 crisis around Taiwan, markets react.
Governments prepare. Even if no conflict happens, belief changes behavior.
Japan and China both see maritime patrols as signals. Each side interprets actions through past memory and suspicion.
Latest Concerns
Internal Divisions and Global Impact
In the United States, political division affects foreign policy.
If one party sees support for allies as necessary and another sees it as wasteful, signals to other countries become mixed.
Discussions about hemispheric dominance or territorial ideas can create anxiety among allies.
Even rhetorical statements influence trust.
Cause and Effect
Why Conflicts Can Escalate
If leaders believe conflict is inevitable, they may prepare more aggressively.
Preparation looks threatening. The other side responds. The cycle continues.
Belief strengthens identity. Identity resists compromise.
Future Steps
How to Reduce Risk
Education can teach people to ask: What is the evidence?
Is this likely or just possible?
Governments can communicate more clearly about intentions.
Media can avoid dramatic speculation without proof.
Conclusion
Was Shermer Right?
Shermer did not predict specific wars. But he warned that humans defend beliefs strongly. In today’s world, that tendency affects geopolitics.
If societies learn to question assumptions and check evidence, conflicts may be managed.
If not, strategic illusion may lead to real wars.