Executive summary
The first 2026 US jobs report surprised everyone with 130,000 new jobs added in January.
This is much better than expected, especially after warnings of bad news due to many deportations and weak private data.
Stocks went up at first but then calmed down.
FAF analysis looks at the background, what’s happening now, big changes, new facts and worries, why this happened, what to do next, and a wrap-up.
Introduction
The Trump team said the January jobs report would be bad because they deported lots of workers who helped create jobs before.
Private reports also looked grim.
But the report showed 130,000 new jobs, almost double what experts thought.
For example, tech added 45,000 jobs.
This makes people wonder why the numbers are so good?
History and current status
In past years, immigrants helped the US add many jobs, like in building and farming.
From 2021 to 2024, over 5 million came and kept unemployment low at 3.7%.
But in 2025, Trump started big deportations, sending away 1.3 million people.
This hurt some areas.
Now, the economy grew 4.3% last quarter, but jobs slowed to 50,000 in December.
Unemployment is 4.4%, and fewer people are looking for work.
Key developments
Trump won in 2024 promising to deport millions and add tariffs.
In 2025, he ended protections for 1 million immigrants and raised tariffs on $3 trillion of goods.
This led to raids and 675,000 deportations.
But tax cuts of $800 billion helped spending.
The Fed cut rates too.
January’s 130,000 jobs came from tech and health care.
Latest facts and concerns
January added 130,000 jobs, with wages up 4.1%.
But construction lost 10,000 due to shortages.
Deficits will grow $1.4 trillion over 10 years. Inflation might hit 3.5%.
For example, farms can’t find workers, raising food prices.
Many skilled people are leaving.
Cause-and-effect analysis
Deportations remove workers, so jobs in some areas drop, like farming where 40% are immigrants. This makes prices rise.
Tariffs make things cost more, like cars up 2%.
But tax cuts help people buy more, adding jobs in stores.
For example, a factory might close from tariffs but open elsewhere from lower taxes.
Future steps
Let in more legal workers, like 100,000 extra visas for farms.
Cut tariffs on friends like Canada.
Train Americans for empty jobs with $50 billion.
Keep the Fed independent to control prices.
Conclusion
The good January numbers show short wins from tax cuts, but deportations and tariffs could hurt later with higher prices and fewer jobs.
The US needs smart changes to keep growing
