Why Trump's Biggest Immigration Promise Is Now His Biggest Political Problem

Summary

The Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, known as ICE, was supposed to be President Trump's star achievement. He spent months during his 2024 campaign promising Americans he would deport dangerous criminals. Congress approved a $170 billion budget to make it happen—an enormous amount of money. But less than one year later, ICE has become Trump's biggest political liability. Here is why the plan collapsed so quickly.

The Promise Was Simple and Popular

Trump's immigration message in 2024 was straightforward. He said he would focus on removing gang members, drug dealers, and violent criminals. This made sense to many voters. Nobody wants dangerous criminals living in their country. Most Americans supported this basic idea.

When Trump won the election, he had the power to make this happen. Congress gave him the money. The agency had the resources. Everything seemed set up for success.

But something went very wrong very quickly.

The Problem: Most Detainees Were Not Criminals

The first major problem appeared when people looked at who ICE was actually detaining. It was not mostly dangerous criminals. In fact, according to government statistics from December 2025, about 50% of people in ICE detention had no criminal charges at all.

For example, some people detained were asylum seekers—people fleeing violence in their home countries who legally applied for protection. Some had lived in America for 20 or 30 years with jobs and families. Some had only minor traffic violations. Some were brought to the United States as children and had never lived anywhere else.

This created a credibility problem. The government said it was targeting criminals, but the actual detention numbers showed something very different.

The Critical Moment: A Tragedy in Minneapolis

On January 7, 2026, everything came apart. An ICE agent shot and killed a woman named Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. She was 37 years old, had three children, and was a United States citizen.

The government said Good attacked the ICE agent with her car. They called it "terrorism." But videos from people at the scene told a completely different story. The videos showed Good actually turning her steering wheel away from the officer—not toward him. She turned right to avoid hitting him.

The officer fired four times. Experts who studied the timing found that the second shot came less than half a second after the first shot. That is not enough time to make a careful decision about whether someone is really dangerous.

This killed the entire program's support.

Public Opinion Changed Dramatically

News about the shooting spread everywhere. Almost 90% of Americans heard about it. People protested in cities across the country. They demanded that ICE be investigated and changed.

Pollsters asked Americans what they thought about ICE. The results showed a stunning shift:

In February 2026, when Trump took office, ICE had positive approval. People generally supported it.

By January 2026, approval had completely flipped. Now, 52% of Americans disapprove of ICE.

51% of Americans now say ICE makes cities less safe rather than safer.

46% of Americans support completely eliminating ICE—shutting down the entire agency. A year ago, this would have been considered an extreme position held only by activists. Now it represents the view of nearly half of all Americans.

Other Major Problems

Beyond public opinion, the operation had other serious failures:

ICE agents in Oregon made arrests that increased by 1,400% in just a few months. Court documents revealed ICE was using quotas—agents had to make arrests every day, even without good evidence. They arrested people first and created justifications afterward.

The detention system became a health crisis. In 2025, 30 people died while in ICE custody. That is the most in over 20 years. In just the first ten days of 2026, four more people had already died.

Experts calculated that the entire program costs hundreds of billions of dollars but would actually harm the economy by destroying millions of jobs in construction, agriculture, and child care.

The Political Consequences

Democrats in Congress now see an opportunity. They say they will not approve spending for ICE unless major changes are made. For the first time, "Abolish ICE" has become a mainstream Democratic political position supported by polls showing 46% of Americans agree.

What Started as a Success Became a Crisis

Trump's deportation plan was supposed to define his presidency. Instead, it has become his most controversial policy. The problem was that the plan could not be executed as promised. When Americans discovered that ICE was detaining people without criminal records and that the agency was operating under quotas without proper oversight, public support evaporated.

The shooting of Renee Good—a U.S. citizen just going about her day—transformed ICE from an abstract policy debate into a concrete threat that Americans could see and understand. That single event changed everything, and it is unlikely the situation will improve.