Riyadh.Media- Assessment of U.S. Operational Expenditures and Fiscal Viability: A Scrutiny of Military Allocations in the Context of Economic Pressures

Introduction

In the near future, the scrutiny surrounding US operation costs and fiscal sustainability is poised to intensify as we anticipate significant developments in military spending amidst ongoing economic challenges.

As we look ahead, it will be crucial to analyze how these expenditures will affect fiscal policies and overall financial health, prompting discussions that may redefine strategic priorities and budget allocations in the coming years.

The outcome of these analyses could shape the landscape of national defense and economic stability, making it a critical area to monitor as we navigate these evolving circumstances.

The cost of Operation Midnight Hammer, the US military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities conducted on June 22, 2025, represents a significant but manageable expense within the broader context of US defense spending.

⏩The direct costs can be estimated between $120 million and $170 million based on the operational components and munitions deployed.

The operation involved seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, each costing approximately $2.3 million during the 35-hour mission, totaling around $16 million for aircraft operations.

The most expensive component was the 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, estimated at $4-5 million per unit, contributing approximately $56-70 million to the total cost.

Additionally, 30 Tomahawk missiles, each costing $1.5 million, added roughly $45 million, while support operations for the 125+ aircraft involved contributed an estimated $15-25 million.

US Debt Crisis and Repayment Challenges

Current Debt Situation

The United States faces an unprecedented debt crisis that fundamentally challenges its fiscal sustainability.

⏩As of June 2025, the national debt reached $36.21 trillion, representing a $1.56 trillion increase from the previous year.

Based on the previous estimate, this translates to approximately $106,447 per person or $273,904 per household.

⏩The debt-to-GDP ratio currently stands at 124.0% as of December 2024, significantly higher than the 114.76% recorded in 2023.

⏩Interest payments on this debt have become economically devastating, reaching $776 billion in May 2025 and representing 16% of total federal spending, as mentioned in a previous conversation.

Debt Refinancing Crisis

The Treasury Department faces an immediate refinancing challenge, with nearly $3 trillion of US debt expected to hit maturity in 2025.

⏩As of April 30, 2025, 31.4% of the outstanding national debt will be due for refinancing within the next year, amounting to about $11 trillion in US debt securities.

This massive refinancing requirement occurs amid elevated interest rates, dramatically increasing the cost of servicing the national debt.

⏩Interest costs incurred through servicing the national debt jumped by $239 billion, or 34%, to $949 billion in fiscal year 2024.

This amount exceeds the Department of Defense’s discretionary budget and federal spending on Medicare.

As a share of federal revenues, federal interest payments are projected to rise to 18.4% by the end of 2025.

Economic Context and Domestic Challenges

Employment and Economic Indicators

Contrary to rising unemployment claims, the US unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.2% through May 2025.

However, this stability masks underlying economic stress, as the labor force participation rate declined to 62.4% in May, matching February’s two-year low.

⏩Employment dropped by 696,000 people while the number of unemployed rose by 71,000.

⏩Long-term unemployment has climbed to a more than two-year high, with 1.7 million Americans out of work for six months or longer. The long-term jobless now make up nearly a quarter of all unemployed workers.

Retail and Consumer Spending Decline

⏩Retail sales have shown significant weakness, sinking 0.9% in May 2025, marking the second straight monthly decline and the largest over two years.

This decline was worse than the expected 0.5% decrease.

⏩The retail sector faces significant distress, with store closures expected to surge by 334% in 2025, reaching approximately 15,000 store closures.

US Support for Israel: Financial Impact

Military Aid and Assistance

The United States has provided substantial military aid to Israel, particularly since the October 7, 2023, attacks.

⏩According to Brown University’s Costs of War Project, the US spent a record $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel in the year following October 7, 2023.

⏩This figure represents the highest military aid sent to Israel in any single year since the US began granting military aid to Israel in 1959.

US spending on Israel’s military operations and related operations in the region totals at least $22.76 billion.

This includes additional costs of $4.86 billion for related US military operations in the broader region, particularly the Navy’s campaign against Houthi militants in Yemen.

2025 Aid Commitments

⏩The Trump administration has committed significant additional resources to Israel in 2025.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced he signed a declaration to fast-track approximately $4 billion in military aid to Israel.

In January 2025, the US State Department notified Congress about a proposed $8 billion arms sale to Israel?

⛔Under the current Memorandum of Understanding covering fiscal years 2019-2028, the United States pledged to provide $38 billion in military aid to Israel, including $33 billion in Foreign Military Financing grants plus $5 billion in missile defense appropriations.

International Student Visa Impacts

Scale of Visa Revocations

The Trump administration’s crackdown on international students has resulted in significant visa revocations and economic impacts.

⏩More than 1,800 students initially lost their F-1 or J-1 student status as part of immigration enforcement actions.

However, estimates vary significantly, with the American Immigration Lawyers Association counting more than 4,700 students removed from the Immigration and Customs Enforcement database.

⏩In the spring of 2025, Immigration and Customs Enforcement stripped over 4,700 international students of their legal ability to study in the US.

⏩The Trump administration later reversed course, restoring international students’ legal status while developing a new framework for future terminations.

⏩In the 2023–2024 academic year, international students contributed between $43.8 billion and $44 billion to the U.S. economy, according to multiple authoritative sources including NAFSA: Association of International Educators and the National Foundation for American Policy.

The above figure reflects the combined impact of tuition payments and living expenses by approximately 1.1 million international students studying in the United States, supporting over 378,000 jobs nationwide.

Some reports from the U.S. Department of Commerce suggest a higher estimate of $50 billion for 2023, but the consensus among education-focused organizations is consistently around $43.8–$44 billion for the 2023–2024 academic year.

Therefore, the most widely cited and recent figure for U.S. revenue from international students in 2024 is about $43.8–$44 billion.

Economic Impact on Universities

The visa revocations have had substantial economic impacts on US universities.

⏩International students contribute significantly to university revenues, with some institutions seeing billions in international student tuition.

The sudden removal of thousands of students creates immediate revenue losses and longer-term reputational damage that could deter future international applicants.

⏩While available data does not quantify specific dollar amounts for losses, the disruption affects current revenues and future enrollment planning for institutions heavily dependent on international student fees.

Federal Reserve Capacity and Emergency Funds

⏩Limited Federal Reserves

The United States maintains minimal financial reserves compared to its debt obligations.

⏩US reserve assets total approximately $253.8 billion as of April 2025, including gold stock of $11.041 billion, special drawing rights of $173.9 billion, foreign currency reserves of $38.6 billion, and IMF reserve position of $30.3 billion.

The Treasury General Account held $366.52 billion as of June 20, 2025, down significantly from $771.75 billion one year ago.

⏩Unlike many states, the federal government has never maintained a rainy day fund.

Debt Ceiling Constraints

The debt ceiling was reinstated at $36.1 trillion on January 2, 2025.

To continue operations, the Treasury Department relies on approximately $700 billion in cash on hand and $350 billion in available extraordinary measures.

⏩The Congressional Budget Office projects that the Treasury could face potential default as early as August 2025.

Public Opinion and Taxpayer Approval

Presidential Approval Ratings

⏩Contrary to claims of 56% approval, President Trump’s approval ratings show significant volatility and generally negative trends.

Recent polling data reveals approval ratings ranging from 41% to 47% across various polls, with disapproval consistently higher.

According to Newsweek’s tracker, Trump’s net approval stands at -4 points, with 47% approval and 51% disapproval.

The Economist’s tracker reports that Trump’s net approval was at -12, down from -7 at the beginning of June.

Nate Silver’s analysis shows Trump’s net approval at -6.1 as of June 23, 2025.

Military Spending Public Opinion

Public opinion on military spending presents a complex picture.

The Reagan National Defense Survey found that nearly 80% of Americans supported increased government spending on the US military.

⏩However, another survey found that only about a third (34%) of Americans think their country should spend more on its military, while 27% believe it should pay less.

The disconnect between policymakers’ push for increased military budgets and public opinion is notable.

⛔Researchers concluded that “policymakers pushing for increasing the military budget are out of touch with the American public.”

Budget Priorities and Social Program Impacts

Federal Budget Allocation

The 2025 federal budget faces significant constraints due to debt service costs.

⛔The $7.3 trillion budget represents the largest in US history, including $1.6 trillion in base discretionary spending.

Defense discretionary spending amounts to approximately $895.2 billion, while non-defense discretionary spending amounts to about $733.9 billion.

⛔President Trump’s 2026 budget proposes an unprecedented increase to $1.01 trillion for defense spending, representing a 13% increase and approximately 3.4% of GDP.

This increase occurs alongside proposed cuts to non-defense discretionary spending of $163 billion, or 22.6% below current-year expenditures.

Social Program Cuts and Reforms

The current trajectory suggests significant cuts to social programs.

⛔If the reconciliation bill is enacted in its current form, mandatory cuts under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act would trigger approximately $500 billion in cuts to Medicare over 2026-2034.

⏩The Trump administration’s budget blueprint aims to balance the federal budget within 10 years by reducing deficits by more than $16 trillion between fiscal years 2024 and 2033.

This includes proposed reforms to Medicare and Medicaid to reduce spending while maintaining benefits for seniors and vulnerable populations.

Sustainability Assessment

Unsustainable Fiscal Trajectory

The United States faces an unsustainable fiscal trajectory that threatens long-term national security more than external military threats.

⛔The combination of $36.21 trillion in debt growing at $4.27 billion daily, interest payments consuming 16% of federal spending, limited emergency reserves, and structural budget deficits exceeding $1.4 trillion annually creates an untenable fiscal environment.

The current path suggests fiscal constraints, rather than external threats, may ultimately determine America’s strategic capabilities and global influence.

⛔The nation’s ability to maintain military operations like Operation Midnight Hammer while supporting allies like Israel becomes increasingly constrained as debt service crowds out other government functions.

Strategic Implications

The prioritization of military spending and foreign aid over domestic programs reflects a strategic choice with significant long-term consequences.

⏩While Operation Midnight Hammer’s $120-170 million cost is relatively small compared to the $17.9 billion in annual aid to Israel, both occur within rising interest payments that now exceed defense spending and threaten the sustainability of social programs that millions of Americans rely upon.

The fundamental challenge lies not in the individual costs of military operations or foreign aid, but in the broader fiscal framework that makes such spending increasingly difficult to sustain alongside essential domestic programs.

Without significant fiscal reforms, the United States may find its strategic options constrained by its debt burden, regardless of military capabilities or international commitment