It is a question that has posed as a threat between the allegiances of Russia–Syria. Russia–Syria relations refer to the bilateral relationship between Russia and Syria. The Russians changed the equation by sending in their air force to Syria on the 30th September 2015 to rescue the crumbling regime of President Bashar al-Assad, is in a capable position to dominate the fighting and the word. Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, ostensibly operates in tandem on the Geneva forum with John Kerry, US Secretary of State, said that the Americans understands, they can't do anything without Russia recently. While real enough in the Syrian context, this big speech raises the question of what Russia can do.
After five years of brutal conflict, the deepest chasm between the regime and the series of opponents remains the expectations of President Assad and his clan. Iran and Russia, which his regime in place though held in a shrinking body, insist there can be outsiders, oust him in Libya or Iraq-style regime change. While the United States and its European and Arab allies argue - they the less vocal than they once did - that Assad has lost all legitimacy by waging war against their people.
President Assad, which holds parliamentary elections on Wednesday, says he is open to involving selected opposition figures in a "national unity" government, but completely leads a transitional ruling body with full executive powers, the formula agreed in Geneva in mid -2012.
Iran, the Revolutionary Guards and paramilitary allies, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the regime remained alive until the intervention of Russia, seems to agree.
Ali Akbar Velayati, the foreign policy adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, said at the weekend that the removal of President Assad was a "red line" for Tehran.
Russia seems doubtful. Moscow has always said their military investment in Syria was intended to create the conditions for a transition from the war. President Putin sudden but a partial withdrawal of its troops last month was wide, if speculative, interpreted as a message to President Assad, who had started to talk about his plans to retake all of the Syria - to fight to the last Russian.
The scale of the attack on Russia on Sunni insurgents, some of them supported the West, which seemed within reach of the overthrow of President Assad, the Syrian president client may have made strong. Dependence on the regime has turned into a kind of Russian-Syrian interdependence - as long as President Putin wants to keep this valuable position in the Middle East. Is the Kremlin, despite the fact that an alliance with Syria dates back to the Soviet era, the latest victim of what might be called the luck of the Assad?
Syria has long been the recipient of a timely windfall. During the 1970s, oil-rich Gulf rulers bankrolled Hafez al-Assad, Bashar's father, as the leader of a frontline state against Israel. In the 1980s, Syria was free of oil from Iran in exchange for the support of the Islamic Republic in the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, Syria, and the Ba'ath party rival. After intervening in the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war, which the West turned a blind eye, the Assad regime and its allies made a fortune. Syria was received from Iraqi oil illegally at a discount of up to $ 20 per barrel until the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.
Although President Assad then helps piped jihadism in Iraq sabotage the occupation, Damascus made its intelligence on Islamists at the disposal of the US in the aftermath of the 9/11 al-Qaeda attacks, gave President Assad what a State Department official said at the time a get out of jail card. His ultimate windfall may be that the United States and the West are the priorities in the fight against Isis - a jihadi movement helped his policies create - the fall of his regime.
President Putin may be trying to find ways through Syria security of the State through the control of two of the pillars. That still leaves intact the deadly intelligence and militia network Iran has built for Assad, who is trying to bring in Moscow under military control. Russia is also seeking to get some mainstream rebels toward this seemingly more professional army, stripped of the most infamous Assad to attract leaders. It does not look like much of a plan, but then neither is anything else.